ICTJ in the News

September 18, 2008

Kenya's coalition alive but not kicking

IOL

By Jean-Marc Mojon

Nairobi - As Kofi Annan returns to Kenya six months after brokering a landmark power-sharing deal, the governing coalition is still holding but has little else to boast about, analysts say.

The former UN chief arrived in Nairobi on Thursday to be presented with the findings of a commission probing the December 2007 elections which erupted into the country's worst-ever crisis and left at least 1 500 dead.

But while the country's former political enemies appear content with their new jobs and the return to stability, some observers and many Kenyans are left wanting more accountability for the past and more guarantees for the future.
"I think a lot of Kenyans have reservations about whether yet another commission will deliver," warns Comfort Ero, deputy director of the Africa Programme at the International Centre for Transitional Justice.

"There has been a tendency by the government to shelve commissions and ignore their recommendations," she adds.

The Kriegler commission's findings on the flawed December polls lack the naming and shaming many had hoped for, claim it is impossible to determine who won the elections, discard accusations of organised rigging and merely recommend electoral reforms.

The full text of the report is to be made public on Friday, but civil society groups have already voiced their disappointment that the commission did not recommend prosecutions or even just the disbanding of the electoral commission.

"So six months on, the judge (Kriegler) says it is impossible to know who won. He is basically saying that nobody has a mandate to govern the nation," says Mwalimu Mati, who heads a local political watchdog.

Two other commissions, one looking into where the responsible for the violence lies and another aimed at fostering reconciliation have yet to get off the drawing board.

Observers point out that since President Mwai Kibaki shook hands with his rival Raila Odinga, now the prime minister, the coalition formed by their two parties has achieved little.

The question of the hundreds of thousands of people who were displaced by the violence remains unsolved, with their return either slow or forced by the authorities.

On a political level, issues such as tribalism, constitutional and land reform - the underlying causes of the violence that were to be addressed in the negotiations' final chapter - have been left largely untouched.

"We have a political elite that is comfortable with the accord and not interested in resolving the problems facing Kenyans," Mati says.

The Africa Programme's Ero argues that the minute Annan flew out of Nairobi on March 2, Kenya's politicians abandoned the agreed agenda and switched their efforts back to promoting their careers.

"Most of the leaders in the coalition have got their eye on the 2012 elections and are not really interested in these issues," she says.

"As far as the coalition is concerned, as long as it sticks together, that's their definition of success."

Kenyan political analyst Evans Monari warns that overlooking the issues closest to people's hearts can only sow the seeds of further turmoil.

"Both sides are still playing brinkmanship instead of statesmanship, which is a dangerous game. When you put people in such a situation, tension heightens and it comes out when opportunities present themselves like elections."

Beyond the bitter infighting that exists in the coalition, analysts say the government's performance in putting the country back on its feet is mixed.

Robert Shaw, a prominent Nairobi-based businessman and economic analyst, praises the efforts being conducted in some sectors such as tourism but says the government generally lacks energy and remains steeped in corruption.

"Six months down the line, the score card is not impressive and is not blank either... One thing that disappoints me is corruption," he says.

The coalition's young tenure has already been marred by a scandal over the murky sale of a luxury hotel and the sacking of the Central Bank's deputy governor, cases which for many Kenyans smack of the old days of graft and cronyism.

Shaw is sceptical of the government's four-percent growth forecast for 2008, arguing two or three percent would be more realistic.

"The government does not seem to realise the enormity of the task they are facing... It needs a reality check." - Sapa-AFP

"Kenya's coalition alive but not kicking" originally appeared in IOL.