ICTJ in the News

September 27, 2008

Zimbabwe: Pain of chasing elusive political deal

Financial Gazette

By Ray Matikinye

How does one proceed into a dungeon that has no gold coins along its path with only a small candle to illuminate the tunnel?

Faced with such a dilemma, Zimbabweans are struggling to achieve the feat of travelling an uncharted path with no markers, courtesy of an ambiguous political pact. The initial euphoria surrounding the signing of a deal to end the country's political and social conflict has quickly ebbed.

And a majority of those who celebrated the power-sharing accord are gradually sinking into despondency while others have withdrawn into unbearable doubts and pessimism.
"We don't know what's in store for us. We thought the country had come of age, but no," says motor mechanic, Enious Runochinya of Hatfield suburb in Harare.

"We are slowly getting back to a past of hopelessness because those in leadership do not feel the crushing economic hardships we experience daily. They fear for their positions," Runochinya said in reference to the delays in naming a Cabinet and implementing the accord in full.

In spite of initial hopes, there are now simmering doubts as to how well the deal will work in practice even among Southern African Development Community (SADC) officials and those from other continental and international bodies. No one could have predicted the immediate aftermath of what seemed like a panacea to Zimbabwe's decade-old political crisis better than Tanzanian President and chairman of the African Union, Jakaya Kikwete, when he remarked: "Will it hold or will it not?"

Prime Minister-designate, Morgan Tsvangirai echoed Kikwete's doubts: "I am anxious about how this is going to work. The devil is in the implementation of this agreement. This is a political risk that we have taken."

Tsvangirai, who said that he was not comfortable with the agreement, told the British Broadcasting Corporation: "But I must say that I think all of us are committed to see it through."

Deputy Prime Minister-elect Arthur Mutambara put it rather bluntly: "The agreement has flaws, warts and all.... How do you effectively make decisions in an inclusive government without one leader or the other passing the buck or avoiding taking responsibility?"

And that is what seems to be happening.

United Nations assistant secretary general for political affairs, Haile Menkerios who served as the world body's representative on the reference group backing SADC efforts to broker the deal said: "This is a delicate compromise."
He said although the deal would be painful to implement, it offered millions of Zimbabweans the opportunity for a better life.

Less than a week into the pact, differences that threaten to derail its implementation have surfaced. Disagreements have surfaced over the bundling out of ministries allotted to ZANU-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) led by the Prime Minister designate.

An analysis of the deal reveals public and official fears and some inherent inadequacies. Apart from the wrangle raging over key ministries, an aspect not covered by the pact, Article 20 exposes opportunities for abuse of power by President Mugabe. He can proclaim martial law and public emergencies without having to consult with the Prime Minister.

According to the director of the International Centre for Transitional Justice at its South African office and deputy director of the organisation's Africa programme, Comfort Ero, this would allow President Mugabe to act alone in suspending key rights, including the right to personal liberty and freedoms of expression, assembly and movement.
More unsettling, is the fact that the constitution bars the courts from overturning the President's decisions to declare public emergencies.

"It is President Mugabe, who is authorised to ‘make key appointments' under the constitution. (President) Mugabe also retains the power to dissolve parliament." Ero notes.
He said these powers have to be exercised "in consultation" with Tsvangirai as Prime Minister, yet the agreement does not specify what this means.

"It ought to have read ‘in concurrence with' or ‘with the consent of,'" Ero says.

Another contentious provision of the agreement is Article 15, which calls for national youth training programmes, but does not require the disbanding of ZANU-PF youth militias and war veterans' paramilitary groups and their re-integration into society.

There are, however, some positive provisions in Article 18 on security and prevention of violence, not withstanding these warts.

"The government must apply the law impartially in bringing all perpetrators of politically motivated violence to book," Article 18.5 (c) states.

Analysts say theoretical commitment will be worth very little if the provisions apply only to junior offenders and not to senior perpetrators who orchestrated the violence from behind the scenes.

Article 20 (1.3) of the agreement highlights President Mug-abe's power to grant pardons, which he may use to thwart prosecutions.

History shows how President Mugabe has habitually pardoned perpetrators of violence. He has pardoned Kizito Chivamba who maimed Midlands politician Patrick Ko-mbayi for life and the police have not brought the notorious Central Intelligence Organisation operative, Joseph Kitsiy-atota Mwale for the murder of Talent Mabika and Tichaona Chiminya in the run-up to the 2000 elections. President Mugabe, it is feared, could stick to this approach to strengthen his hand.

The signatories themselves do not invest much confidence in the pact they signed either.

Said Tsvangirai: "The agreement we are signing today creates a transitional authority that will govern Zimbabwe until a new democratic constitution can be put in place and genuinely free and fair elections can be held. But we must not use the current crisis, desperate as it is, to delay the lasting solution to our underlying problem."

The agreement states that a new constitution should be put in place in 18 months. ZANU-PF regards the agreement's lifespan as a five-year term and considers both formations of the MDC as junior partners despite that they jointly control Parliament.

In an address broadcast live on television last week, President Mugabe went on to assure his party that it remained in "the driving seat."

"Dismantling the dictatorship, ending cronyism and dropping radical nationalist policies such as seizing control of banks, mines and other foreign-owned businesses would be a good start," says political analyst and author, Richard Dowden.

Another fear is that the MDC leaders could settle comfortably into enjoying the perks of the jobs and fail to implement the changes they have been fighting for, says Dowden, a director of the Royal African Society and author of "Altered States, Ordinary Miracles."

At present, ministerial perks include an S600 Mercedes Benz, an all-terrain vehicle for the farm, a small run around for town for their spouses, another smaller Mercedes, a generator, television and free groceries and fuel, There is also a free house, three drivers, security personnel, and other miscellaneous perks. Tsvangirai may be tempted to join the gravy train, but the eyes of Zimbabweans are on him.

The very existence of this coalition government will open up more political space for divergent views, as has already started to happen with strident criticism from civic organisations such as the National Constitutional Assembly and trade unions affiliated to the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions.

Perhaps civic organisations see this as taking up the challenge Mutambara threw at Zimbabweans when he said the coalition agreement implied that "we are now working together as a united, cohesive governing coalition. Therefore, my challenge to the people of Zimbabwe is that the time has come for you to form a new opposition political party against us..."

The challenge might prod some political activists and those who aligned with the MDC during its formative years to express more robust opposition to deals of convenience such as the one now under scrutiny.

Ordinary Zimbabweans feel the leadership engages in frivolous wrangling and are allowing Rome to burn while they fiddle.

"Pain of chasing elusive political deal" originially appeared in The Financial Gazette.